MVN: Most Valuable Network

#1

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 2:49 PM

Everyone please welcome the newest Wrigleyville23 contributor - lifelong Cub fan Dusty.Yes, THAT Dusty. Forgive him.

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#2

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 3:19 PM

Well, I'm not much of a bible scholar, but Moses never actually made it to the promised land...

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#3

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 3:25 PM

ha.

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#4

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 3:31 PM

I would just stick with him for a few more years and hope that he could put all of that potential together and stay healthy. Maybe, if in like 2011 he's not any better, you could cut the chord. Well, you'd hate to do it too early, so to be safe I'd give him until 2013.But seriously at the start, no the end of the 2013 season if he's still cashing a paycheck based on some fake potential he had like 7 years ago then you should probably let him go. 2013 is a weird, odd numbered year, so now that I think about it, let's just say 2020. There, that settles it. If Kerry Wood is not healthy & striking out 20+ per outing 12 years from now, I think it will be time for the Cubs to move on. Now let's talk Grossman.....

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#5

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 3:37 PM

Did this cat actually say "above-average" starting staff? I deg to biffer, their friend.

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#6

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 3:38 PM

*therePS, I'm the typo guy here at Wrigleyville23.

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#7

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 3:40 PM

ap, ap, ap - something about the arrival of baseball season makes you turn cranky.the potential was not at all "fake." kerry wood turned in perhaps the most dominating performance in a game ever in just his fifth start. 20 Ks, one hit. unfreaking touchable. go back and watch the game sometime - it was just on ESPN classic.combine what sheets and Z did yesterday and multiply it by 57 and it still isn't close to what he had. his talent - and potential - were very real.unfortunately, so were the injuries.

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#8

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 3:53 PM

Wolter...excellent point. But his people did. And as one of Kerry's people, I would like to make it to the metaphoric Promised Land with the Cubs winning a World Series. Not that I'm hoping that Kerry croaks one out from the game-winning World Series game. But, hey...it's been 100 years.

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#9

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 4:00 PM

Nutsack, sorry but after Z it gets scary. And Z is just scary himself. Thankfully, we're in NL Central. And appreciate the typo help. Clearly need that as I get going here. Meant to say in response to Wolter: "Not that I hope Kerry croaks just before the final out of the winning World Series game." Whew...BTW, read the chat from yesterday. Nutsack -- recommend not engaging in discussions about "baggy pants" given your moniker. Could cause problems for the site.

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#10

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 4:09 PM

What year was that 20K performance in WV? 2005, right?

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#11

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 4:20 PM

'98, of course - a decade ago, which is hard to believe.and then there was '03 - 266 strikeouts and 3.20 ERA.and '02 - 217 strikeouts with a 3.56 ERA.there's nothing fake about kerry wood's potential or talent.kerry will have a place with the cubs as long as he wants one - and he came back to the cubs because he felt he owed it to them, unlike that ingrate mark prior.

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#12

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 4:41 PM

Oh, and about the baggy pants...I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at.I just think that Gagne and Fielder could do themselves a favor and not wear their Brewer's PJ's to the park. It makes them look foolish.

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#13

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 4:41 PM

Dusty:About the typo stuff, I was merely making that comment about myself always committing typos at the worst times--like when I'm trying to make my lame points.And, about the rotation. I think we are in agreeance that it gets scary (for us Cub fans) after Zambrano.Good to have you aboard. Welcome.

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#14

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 4:49 PM

I think WV was trying to engage you (and others) to bite on his baggy pants/pajamas comment in the chat today. Just giving a headsup.

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#15

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 5:01 PM

WV, I'm not angry or cranky, I just never could understand Chi-town's fascination with this guy. I realize I don't get the whole Cub "mystique", but c'mon this guy is far from a legend, and Cub fans treat him like he cured cancer whilst walking on water. He threw over 200 innings twice in a decade. Injuries? sure, but he never got close to 180 innings in 8 out of 10 years, and when Sheets does that he gets crucified by lots of people. He hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in the last, what like 5 years? Durability is part of the overall "talent" of a pitcher too....You mentioned some of Wood's great seasons. You mentioned '98, '02, & '03. IMHO '03 is a good year but my point is this: In every single one of those seasons he didn't finish in the top 10 in MLB in ERA, which was the stat you used. In '03 he was 12th.....12th and made an all-star team. Capuano made an all star team man....... In '98 he finished 17th, and in 2007 his equivalent was Oliver Perez on the Mets who finished 17th in ERA. I say Whoop-a-dee-doo to Oliver Perez.....In that magical '02 season, he finished 37th in MLB in ERA. In 2007 your own but not nearly as equally beloved Rich Hill finished 37th in ERA. I won't give my obviously biased opinion on MR. Hill, but Christ even some Cubs fans out there say Whoop-a-dee-doo to Rich Hill. I'm just saying that with the Wood-boners that exist out there, you'd think the guy had been like, you know, better. I just think there's a LOT of people who don't realize that after 30 birthdays and probably as many injuries, it might be time to bail on the whole "potential" thing. Yeah?

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#16

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 5:10 PM

So, if scoring at home, ap has Kerry as The Goat, WV has Kerry as still a potential Moses.Dusty remains hopeful of the storybook ending but growing more inclined that Mr. Wood is a victim of the curse. (And thus should make way for Marmol, closer of the future).So we're at 1-1-1.Nutsack or Wolter, want to break the tie?

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#17

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 7:44 PM

Why Marmol isn't the closer for the cubs is absolutely beyond me. He is by far the best reliever on the squad. But then again Piniella is so wise isn't he?

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#18

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 8:53 PM

Kpanz. You are right on Marmol, I sadly concede, and don't get me started on Lou. I'll save that venting for throughout the season. Especially after the first Cubs-Reds series.

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#19

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 9:00 PM

Howry is the best reliever on this team and, frankly, it's not really close. Marmol posted an ERA near 6 when he started and a ridiculously low one as a reliever and too many Cubs fans, for some reason, want to believe that is the real Marmol. it's not. He's probably a 3.8ish ERA pitcher in relief. to be honest, he's the cubs 4th best reliever behind Howry, Wuertz, and Wood. besides, if you actually believe Marmol is the best reliever then you should be thrilled by Lou's decision to use him in the highest leverage situation as opposed to the 9th inning which often isn't the highest leverage situation since one-run saves are much less common than the 2-run and 3-run saves. You want your best reliever to come in when the game is on the line, not to protect a lead that pretty much any reliever in baseball can protect. As for the rotation, it's not just above average, it's well above average. It's a top 3 or 4 rotation in the NL and maybe top 2. Name 5 rotations in the NL that don't have issues with their 4th and 5th starters. Just because Dempster is the 3rd starter doesn't change the fact that he and Marquis are the 4th and 5th starters. Overall pitching staff? Who knows? Bullpens are inconsistent beasts. Relievers are failed starters and failed starters aren't even good enough to be in the rotation (jason Marquis is much better than your average number 5 starter).

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#20

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 9:14 PM

Maddog, Marmol's young which accounts for some of your points. I believe he's ready. Much better "closer" stuff than Howry. Howry is better fit as set-up guy.Totally agree with you on Marquis. One of best pitchers on Cubs and NL Central....until All-Star Break. Then he's horrible. And in September, he becomes worst pitcher in all of baseball. That goes back to his Cardinals days. Use and then pawn him off on someone at trade deadline; Lieber will be rested and ready. Better yet, trade Pie or Murton or both and get a legit third starter.

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#21

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 10:01 PM

First off, maddog, I’m a Brewers fan. So, I’m not thrilled that Marmol comes in at all, let alone when the game is on the line and he comes in to eat up like 2+ innings. Despite that, Closers are still more valuable than any middle reliever, setup man, fireman, or whatever you wanna call what Marmol does. Do you really think that each team in major league baseball is a bunch of morons who almost always pay the Closers more money than any other reliever on the team? While Marmol has a seemingly valuable role, he’d still be more valuable if he pitched in the final inning of a game. The only possible reason he isn’t the closer is because he has the ability to throw at least 2 good innings. Which I understand, but that brings up another question as to why don’t they let closers go the 8th and the 9th. I know they’d wear down easier, but there has to be a few guys who do it more. I think Papelbon does the most 4 and 5 out saves, but there should be more, I say.While I think Howry is good, I still think Marmol is the best. His stats are definitely too small of a sample size to be able to project them anyways, so I am merely basing this on what I see from him. He just has that ability to step up in the big moments. He also looks to be very adept at just straight attacking the other team’s best hitters and getting those big outs.

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#22

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 10:48 PM

the official wv23 position is: keep woody the closer. for now. unless something works better. then do that. as soon as possible. unless you don't feel like it. whatever. god.

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#23

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 11:23 PM

Maddog, Marmol's young which accounts for some of your points. I believe he's ready. Much better "closer" stuff than Howry.That's precisely what I'm talking about. We just don't know yet. Major League Baseball is littered with relievers who have a great season or two. It's the nature of the beast. Any one season for a reliever, two for that matter and even three or four or five if you want to get right down to it, is a small sample size in which the possibility of results ranges from outstanding to suck-ass terrible. I should point out that I was raving about Carlos Marmol early in the 2005 season before most Cubs fans had ever heard of him. You just do not find pitcher like him with the stuff he has. He has tremendous potential and always has going back to the moment they converted him into a pitcher. That being said, he walks entirely too many hitters and if he doesn't improve that his career will be short lived. I don't care how difficult you are to hit, you can't walk that many batters when you're a fly ball pitcher. He gave up 3 home runs last year despite being a fly ball pitcher. In any typical season (65-75 innings) you can expect he'll give up between 10 and 15 home runs. The bottom line with Marmol is we don't know yet. We know two things.1. He's not as good as his 2007 and not as poor as his 2006. 2. He's got no future in MLB unless he can cut down on his walks.There have been far too many relievers who have come and gone after having a dominating season to know that what Marmol did last year, while spectacular and just plain awesome to watch, means little in terms of what his future holds. As of right now, he's got no track record. Howry, Wuertz and Wood do. All 3 are more reliable options to close at this moment (and that's if you want your best reliever closing, which I don't). Personally, I couldn't be more happy with Lou's decision to keep Marmol in the role he was in last season. If he's really that good, or close to, he'll pitch in the most important situations just as he did a year ago. He'll come in with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out and get a couple strikeouts preserving the lead. That's exactly where you want your best reliever. I'm willing to give it a chance that he is the best reliever, but I'd put Wuertz in that role in a hurry if Marmol proves last year was nothing more than a fluke and at this point, Dusty, it's a fluke. He has to prove otherwise. As for Marquis and his good first half, bad second half...he's no different. He was unusually lucky in the first half and in the 2nd half he regressed to the mean. Same pitcher both halves. No reason to expect it to be any different. I just think he's a much better option than Dempster, but neither are better options than Marshall or Gallagher.As for Pie, forget that. We're talking about a 23-year old CF who has the potential to be a 40 VORP player for a long time. You don't trade guys like that except for legitimate aces. All Pie has done in the minors has hit. He'll hit in the big leagues too. Probably not with the Cubs, unfortunately. He'll be traded midseason and we'll have to watch him have a really good career for another team.

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#24

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 1, 2008 11:24 PM

That's two Biblical references. Go us.

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#25

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 11:30 PM

Do you really think that each team in major league baseball is a bunch of morons who almost always pay the Closers more money than any other reliever on the team?Yes.These are the same clowns that took a century to value on-base percentage and some don't find it as valuable as they should now. You'll never make a strong argument if you point to what MLB teams do. How much did these guys pay Juan Pierre? Julio Lugo? Gil Meche? Besides, there really isn't any argument that one can make based on facts to support the idea that the closer should be the team's best reliever. It's just become tradition.

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#26

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 11:35 PM

While I think Howry is good, I still think Marmol is the best. His stats are definitely too small of a sample size to be able to project them anyways, so I am merely basing this on what I see from him. He just has that ability to step up in the big moments. He also looks to be very adept at just straight attacking the other team’s best hitters and getting those big outs.Marmol might be the best. As you said, last year was a small sample. We'll know more (though still not enough) after this year. But as of right now Bob Howry is the team's best reliever. Howry's ERA the last 4 years: 2.74, 2.47, 3.17, 3.32. That's consistent and good. You know exactly what you're going to get out of him. Can't say the same about Marmol. While I love to see Marmol come in and do what he has done so well, I'm always afraid. He has almost no clue where the ball is going when it leaves his hand, which is probably why he makes so many hitters look foolish (nobody is going to stand in the box comfortably against him when it could just as easily come at their head as it could be a strike). I think Marmol will be good this year, but I'd feel confident in guessing a 3.85 ERA. More home runs, more hits, about the same number of walks, fewer strikeouts. I think he's capable of posting a 2.75 ERA though.

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#27

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 1, 2008 11:58 PM

WV, I'd leave Woody at closer for now as well. One outing. I'm not going to get worked up about it. The Brewers were due for some runs and they didn't even hit him that hard. I've been happy with most of Lou's decisions except for the occasional one. The only one I've ever hated so much I can't or won't forget is this stupid idea of giving the team's worst hitter the most plate appearances. That makes as much sense as batting the pitcher leadoff. Sadly, if Lou did that, the pitcher would make the opposing pitcher work harder than Theriot does. This team doesn't have a less patient hitter than Theriot. They don't have a worse offensive player either.

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#28

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 2, 2008 8:34 AM

Maddog, I would like to believe your Pie analogy....but the same thing was said for years about Corey Patterson. CF is the new Cubs curse. So I'm in the burn me once shame on you, burn me twice shame on me mentality right now with Pie.And, of course, at this pace Angel Pagan is going to be the NL MVP....so I just don't know what the Cubs think about when it comes to developing minor league talent, deciding who to stick with and who to discard. Look at our lineup this year and past decade -- who have we developed? Woody and Prior, and we know how that ended up. Soto has potential. Rest of our lineup is through FA or trades.That's the story that Hendry is getting a big-time pass on....he'll make good trades and find some good FA....but his development track record and eye for young talent has been shaky. And, of course, he just blames Dusty for all that.

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#29

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 2, 2008 9:16 AM

MD - What do you want? Theriot saw four pitches per at-bat Monday - and did nothing with any of them. He's nothing if not consistent.

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#30

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 2, 2008 9:25 AM

The Pie and Patterson comparisons are tiresome and, with all due respect, lazy. They aren't accurate with but three exceptions: they're both minorities, play CF, and strikeout a lot. Patterson's minor league career in the high minors showed that he was going to suck at the big league level. Cubs fans just didn't pay attention. Pie has been one of the better players in CF at each level he's played. There's no reason for these comparisons and they're not good ones. Pie was significantly better in AA/AAA than Patterson was (Patterson wasn't any good). Could Pie bust? Sure. But it doesn't change the fact that we're talking about a 23-year old with 40-VORP potential and Angel Pagan sucks. Just plain sucks. I have no doubt Pie will get traded this summer because Cubs fans aren't that bright and they'll boo him relentlessly in the first half. The Cubs would be better off if they played 162 games on the road.

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#31

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 2, 2008 10:13 AM

I think we need to go to the Yankees strategy. As much as I hate to admit it, they're on to something (actually they're just going back to something they were onto in the 90s, starting with Jeter, et al).Cubs to need to rebuild minor league system. They have to get the right people in there who can develop these kids properly and, frankly, with some clarity.Then they need to commit to playing the kids when they're ready.But you play them in an environment where they're surrounded by seasoned veterans -- so the pressure isn't so great and they have guys to learn from.This is what made Yankees World Series winners in 90s, then losers in 2000s when they went to the buy-the-biggest-free-agent game (which Hendry has largely played during his tenure too), and now they're going back to the "healthy mix."Yanks are starting two rookie pitchers, with a potential third in the bullpen...finally giving Melky Cabrera the job full-time, and still getting the vets around them. And they're one of the favorites to win it all this year, despite some clear youth concerns.By comparison, just about every team in the NL Central has a far superior minor league system than Cubs. Brewers are all home-grown guys. Reds, home grown. Pirates, they suck but they've got some good home-grown pitching and some other home-grown talent like Bay. Astros, too, though they're trading some of it. Cubs -- we've got Pie. (Murton needs to get traded to AL; DH is his only chance.)So I agree we should give Pie his shot...but I'm still on the fence about whether he really is the talent he's been made out to be. Hope he is; might start a trend.

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#32

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogger.c, April 2, 2008 12:38 PM

Pie is undoubtedly the talent he's made out to be if that talent is this: above average CF. He's not great and never will be. He'll be above average most of his career, hit for some power when he gets into his late 20s (25 or 30 home runs maybe). He'll play very good defense, but take some goofy routes. Anyone thinking he's going to be great is going to be disappointed. However, he's more than capable of producing 3 or 4 40-VORP seasons beginning in a couple years at a pretty cheap rate, which will make him one of the top 3 or 4 offensive CF in baseball and when you consider his defense, even better. He's not Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Jim Edmonds, etc. He'll be a solid player for several years. He'll also be frustrating.A great comparison in terms of value added is Torri Hunter. The Cubs minor league system has improved significantly the last couple of years since Tim Wilken took over the draft. He's one of the best around. The problem with developing prospects is that you have to have a fan base that is patient and Cubs fans couldn't be less patient. In order to allow youngsters the chance some of them deserve, you have to also spend a lot of money so that you can allow that player to grow into the player you hope he'll be. Well, the Cubs are spending the money as of the last two years. Do they have the patience to stick with an incredible talent like Pie? Will they give him the same chance they gave Theriot? If not, this team hasn't learned anything and they're being run by the same clueless people they were not that long ago. Time will tell, but I think we'll learn a few things about this organization this season.

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#33

Posted by <img src="http://www.blogge, April 2, 2008 1:08 PM

No fans are less patient than Yankee fans, and no owner is less patient than their deathbed patriarch.Yet they won when they finally let their youth (jeter, posada, rivera, williams) play with vets like O'Neil, et al. Then they went crazy trying to buy trophies. Now they're back to seeking that balance.I hate the Yanks but have to agree with their former and current approaches. Agree that Cub fans need to find that patience. The real Cub fans have plenty of patience. The new "corporate fans" raised in Chicago during the Jordan era clearly don't.But it's been proven time and again, you can't buy World Series rings...so what choice to we have.I hope you're right on the new minor league director. Need help not just building it but separating the wheat from the chaff as they rise through the system (Hendry sucks at that part.)

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